Herd immunity has gone from the goal to the thing you can’t mention for fear of social media censorship. But, what if we’re ignoring it at our own peril? What if herd immunity is the thing that scientists, data analysts and politicians said it was all along — the key toward ending the COVID-19 pandemic?
On Thursday, the Wall Street Journal published a piece from renowned Johns Hopkins health policy expert and doctor, Marty Makary, which examined the curious case of a 77-percent dip in cases over the last six weeks.
That’s right, did you even know that case numbers have dropped by 77%? Few of us know that number, because it isn’t being reported or talked about anywhere, unless you endless are watching COVID-19 case reporting on a state-by-state or national level. But, it is the reality of what we are seeing.
Dr. Makary notes that the drop couldn’t be from vaccinations alone, there simply isn’t enough of the population taking the theraputic mRNA shots to have that great of an effect this quickly. So, what gives?
According to the article, it appears that we’ve been missing a whole lot of data that would give us the clues needed to solve for this precipitous drop in cases. It turns out we’ve likely only been capturing about 10% to 25% of cases in testing to date, which means that the number of cases since the beginning isn’t the 28 million that is floating out there from the CDC, it’s actually closer to 182 million cases (a 1 in 6.5 ratio that Dr. Makary notes in the piece).
Or translated to percentage of the population, about 55% of the population has already contracted COVID-19.
We also know that roughly 15% of the American population has received the therapeutic shots from Pfizer and other companies, which means that 70% of the American population has either received the therapeutic or has some sort of at least short-term immunity to the virus.
Some will argue that antigen testing doesn’t show the level of immunity within the community that Dr. Markay’s numbers suggest, but as he points out, the flaw is in what information is being captured in the testing. Antigen testing doesn’t look for t-cell memory, which indicates the ability of someone’s body to remember a virus and attack it.
For instance, some 90 years following the Spanish flu of 1918, researchers found t-cell memory existed in those who were still alive. That memory allowed those cells to still produce neutralizing antibodies.
Does that mean that will happen here? Not necessarily, but given the commonalities between the makeup of COVID-19 and other viruses, it’s at least worth taking in to consideration as a potential for immunity to grow within a community once the virus has become as widespread as this one has.
There’s still a lot scientists don’t know about this virus and the disease it causes. But, what we can know from studying it and other similarly-structured viruses can give us clues as to how things could go down.
Some may argue that there’s an issue with re-infection, and we’ve likely all heard stories of people testing positive more than once. It’s important to understand that there are a lot of variables at play — including accuracy of testing between the two positive results to things like the death rate.
Speaking of that, Markay points out the following regarding the death rate in America:
Covid-19 deaths in the U.S. would also suggest much broader immunity than recognized. About 1 in 600 Americans has died of Covid-19, which translates to a population fatality rate of about 0.15%. The Covid-19 infection fatality rate is about 0.23%. These numbers indicate that roughly two-thirds of the U.S. population has had the infection.
For Markay, in consideration of all the information in front of him there’s only one way to explain
The small percentage of Americans to have had the therapeutic vaccine can’t explain this drop by itself. Nor can behavioral changes, because none exist. All information on travel, gathering and mask-wearing has stayed steady. In fact, people have only begun to gather more frequently, traveling longer distances and
But, what about these new variants seen in places like the United Kindom and South Africa that are being reported to be spreading here in America? Markay notes the following:
“Doctors are watching a new strain that threatens to evade prior immunity. But countries where new variants have emerged, such as the U.K., South Africa and Brazil, are also seeing significant declines in daily new cases,” said Markay. “The risk of new variants mutating around the prior vaccinated or natural immunity should be a reminder that Covid-19 will persist for decades after the pandemic is over. It should also instill a sense of urgency to develop, authorize and administer a vaccine targeted to new variants.”
Markay believes that by April, the amount of COVID-19 positive tests in this country are going to be mostly gone.
Time will tell, as with everything with this virus, but the fact that our media and our politicians aren’t talking about the quick drop in case numbers speaks volumes as to how little attention is paid to what’s happening in reality versus what’s happening on Capitol Hill, where reality doesn’t matter very much.
Markay at least provides us with some information to think through and make determinations that are best for our own lives.
The New COVID-19 Panic? Your Kids Must Mask Up
As the adult population reaches nearly 50 percent getting the COVID-19 vaccinations, where will the people who have made a living off pushing panic upon the population of America turn to next? Look no further than the kids you hold near and dear, because it’s coming.
On April 19, the American Academy of Pediatrics wanted us to all be aware that children now make up 21 percent of all new cases of COVID-19 for the second week of April (8-15). The worry comes because children have made up just 13.9 percent of cases since the beginning of tracking by age group, yet today there is a nine percent difference.
A NINE PERCENT INCREASE? Time to push the panic button once again, right?
Why? Let’s start with the fact that we must interpret what the AAP is trying to tell us, because what I just presented to you is the crux of the entire report. So, what would be the point of this information being made in to a report in the first place?
What other reason have any of these types of reports been made in the past year-plus? Fear.
But Andrew, the kids are soon to be the only age demographic to not get the vaccine, so getting this information out is vital to their survival, you might be saying. Well, speaking of that, the AAP had the following information to tell us about kids getting COVID-19 in the United States:
“At least 297 children have died of COVID-19, about 0.06% of all deaths. About 0.01% of children diagnosed with COVID-19 have died. At least 14,849 children have been hospitalized, about 2% of all hospitalizations. Roughly 0.8% of children with COVID-19 have been hospitalized.”
That’s right, just 0.8 percent of all kids who have ever gotten COVID-19 in the history of this virus in the United States have had to even go to the hospital. Yet, we’re supposed to believe that an increase in the percentage of children as a percentage of the overall case numbers means panic?
All of this is pure evil and pure insanity — from the very people who are supposed to be scientifically trained to understand how to interpret data.
Yes, it’s true that children are representing a greater number of the overall case totals today than over the course of the past year. But, that shouldn’t be surprising to anyone, because what else is happening at the exact same time?
Oh, that’s right, those pesky adults are getting vaccinated at warp speed and thusly becoming less and less susceptible to contracting COVID-19 and having negative outcomes should they get it.
Wouldn’t that naturally mean the population that isn’t eligible for the vaccine would represent an ever-increasing percentage of cases to the point that should every adult be vaccinated that kids would represent nearly 100 percent of all cases in the country?
Wouldn’t it also tell us that the vaccinations are having their desired effect — of making anyone who may even get the virus become an asymptomatic case or immune from getting the virus at all?
It would be one thing if we were also seeing a massive spike in kids being hospitalized or dying from COVID-19. But, given what we do know, none of this makes any of the assumptions and insinuations made by the AAP or other organizations true.
Just how bad has the fear-mongering gotten? Well, just three days ago, despite all this evidence we’ve just laid out, the state of Michigan decided that their mask mandates must spread to kids aged 2-4 now too.
Now that vaccinations have hit over 50 percent of American adults and now that mitigation efforts are lessoning as the CDC and states continue to upgrade.
Need proof that children are now the target of the panic and fear-mongering of our media and political elite? Look at what Michigan has recently done — mandating that kids as young as two years old must wear a mask in public spaces.
Yes, your child, that you send to daycare as your company attempts to get back to office work or because you want to concentrate on your work at home, must now wear a mask for the entire duration of their stay in daycare in the state of Michigan.
How did that become a thing that should ever be done given what we have seen about kids this young and their impact on COVID-19 cases and deaths? Well, reports that came out like this one from the AAP is how. When you make the correlation between increasing percentages of the makeup of case numbers and something being wrong with that, you get the fear and the panic.
It is true that Michigan was seeing a super-sharp rise in cases throughout the beginning of this month. But, they’ve also recently seen a dramatic dip in the numbers that really matter — like hospitalizations. The recent peak came on April 19 where some 4,358 adults in the state were hospitalized because of COVID-19. Yet, just 10 days later and the spike is a straight line down, with a 22 percent decline in hospitalization numbers (as you can see below).
Those mask mandates? They were put in place on those little kids just three days ago (as of this writing). Yet, at the time we were seeing not only a decline in the hospitalizations of adults, we were also seeing a decline in the overall case numbers for the entire state of Michigan.
Not just kids, but the entire population of the state, and still the kids must now mask up? None of it makes any scientific or data-driven sense in any way you could possibly parse out the numbers.
Fear is indeed a powerful, but also very dangerous drug. When will those in power stop pushing that panic porn button? When more of us push their buttons right back. It’s the only way to stop what appears to be a never-ending cult.
After all, we’ve moved from 15 days to flatten the curve to 30 days to slow the spread to “do it for others” and government mandates of various varieties in every state to “just get the vaccine” to double mask, even if you got the vaccine, to now the kids must mask up.
Literally nothing you’ve sacrificed, nothing you’ve done to protect, nothing you’ve given in to has been enough for the fear-mongers and panic porn pushers in the media and political classes. NOTHING.
So, is it time to stop now that they’re going after your kids well-being for today and tomorrow for a virus that has killed fewer kids than your fellow mankind has via murder in a typical year?
Oppose Vaccine Passports? You’re going to ‘cost lives’ according to MSNBC
Remember when were shamed in to wearing masks because if you didn’t, you were going to kill all the grandmas and grandpas in the world? Well, a year later and the panic porn pushers in leftist media (but I repeat myself) are still pushing that panic button hard.
On Monday, former Senator Claire McCaskill (D-MO) let us know that not supporting vaccine passports is the thing that will continue to kill people. She was speaking during a segment on MSNBC with host Nicolle Wallace, who let us know that it was the right politicizing our coronavirus response.
“I don’t know how the right got so far ahead creating such a political connotation around the conversation of vaccine passports but again, down here on planet earth, just about every college that has announced back-to-school policies for the fall has announced a policy that includes proof of vaccination,” Wallace said.
The host would also go on to tell us that we have to compare the need for proof of vaccination for schools or traveling to exotic locales to setting up the vaccine passport system here in the United States.
You know, because, naturally the need to vaccinate against diseases and viruses that are infinitesimally more deadly to kids or to adults upon travel is the same as being able to participate in our free society here in the United States.
But, Wallace only served to feed the fear that McCaskill was about to lay down.
“I don’t know, but it’s bad,” McCaskill replied. “I live in a state that the state legislature is dominated by Trumpers and they are busy making it illegal for a business to require a passport, a vaccine passport.”
McCaskill would continue to instill the fear, noting, “This is just, this is not – the fact that they first politicized masks and people died, and now they’re politicizing the appropriate way to encourage people to get vaccines, which will cost lives.”
All of this comes with the news that Lord, President, Savior, Dr. Anthony Fauci has told us that the federal government wouldn’t implement vaccine passports. But, there is a catch with that statement, because White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki noted that while Dr. Fauci’s statement was true, it would be because the government expected the private sector to do what the government wouldn’t do.
Multiple states have already taken action, on both sides of the vaccine passport debate, with states like Idaho, Florida, Texas and Utah putting in measures to ban vaccine passports and New York implementing a system of opening up society with the vaccine passports required for larger social gatherings.
So, to believe McCaskill and Wallace, some of these states are more responsible for death than others. It’s just too bad that the numbers don’t bare that out. Texas, a state that has lifted all statewide mandates saw just 13 deaths as of April 25, with a rolling 7-day average that is the lowest it has been since early June.
Florida is also seeing a huge downturn in deaths, with the rolling 7-day average at its lowest point since mid-November. New York saw 52 deaths as of April 25, nearly identical to the number in Florida. It also has a 7-day average that is nearly identical to that of Florida today.
That doesn’t mean that one set of policies is right and another set is wrong. However, it does show us the idiocy of McCaskill’s comments, because at a minimum, the differing policies have not led to divergent results in deaths or hospitalizations to date.
The difference in vaccination rates also show little effect has been had, with New York having five percent more of its population (45% to 40%) receiving at least one dose of a vaccine. According to McCaskill and Wallace’s thinking, none of this should be true. We’ve seen months of evidence and data and literally none of it points to their assumptions being true.
Will that stop the leftists in our media from fear-mongering or shaming us in to their way of thinking? A year’s worth of evidence suggests that simply won’t be the case.
What’s Acceptable Dr. Fauci?
Late last week Dr. Anthony Fauci and congressman Jim Jordan (R-OH) got in to a viral spat over getting liberties back and the continued lockdowns in much of the United States. During that spat, Dr. Fauci kept repeating that our COVID-19 case numbers were “unacceptable.”
That only served to enrage Jordan, who attempted to pin Dr. Fauci down on a number, any number, that we could quantify as “acceptable.” Amazingly, Dr. Fauci forgot to his hearing aid or suddenly had enough of being asked hard questions. Either way, he refused to give a number that would pinpoint an acceptable rate.
Dr. Fauci was great about telling us what was unacceptable, noting that our daily case numbers of 60,000 weren’t good news. What would bring about good news and the return to normal life? Again, that was beyond Fauci’s expertise apparently, other than to tell us when the rate of infection got to a point that it didn’t pose a risk of an explosion of cases — whatever that means.
If you’re like me, you were left still wondering exactly what would be acceptable, especially considering we’re supposed to “believe science” these days.
Which got me curious about our response to other viruses and what makes COVID-19’s case-rate any more worrisome or different. It turns out, not-so-surprisingly, that the response this virus and even its case-rate is completely out of whack.
As of Dr. Fauci’s testimony last week, we had just over 31 million cases in about 13 months of counting cases. That makes for a case rate of around 2.3 million per month, which is significant, but only in a vacuum.
Our friend, influenza? The yearly thing that we get a shot for in the hopes and prayers of not getting put in to a hospital or dying from? It infects between 9 and 41 million people in the United States alone. That means in an epidemic level year (which 2020 was, and likely because COVID-19 was already here, we just didn’t test for it) we see an average of nearly 4.5 million cases per month.
Lest we forget that the flu season isn’t year-round and lest we forget that influenza case numbers are a guessing game because we really have no official or recognizable test specifically for influenza itself.
But, so far we see a nearly 3-to-1 ratio in the difference between case numbers per month, a measure that is more accurate that total numbers given the seasonality of the flu and the ongoing positive case rates with COVID-19.
Ok, so, let’s say 41 million influenza cases is a bit out of whack? How about an average or median year then? It turns out that’s more like 25 million cases, which translates to 2.8 million cases over the typical 9-month flu season.
Last time I checked, 2.8 million is still more than average per month of COVID-19 as it stood last Thursday during Lord, President, Savior, Dr. Anthony Fauci’s testimony in front of congress.
Does that mean that we shouldn’t take COVID-19 seriously? Of course not, but what these numbers do is give us some badly needed perspective. So, once again, I ask (and I wish someone in congress would ask), “what is acceptable and what makes these case numbers any different than what we see in an influenza outbreak every year?”
I’m not, nor should congress be, interested in rehashing just how much more lethal a novel version of a coronavirus is than the typical flu that we have become accustomed to, even if what’s being sold to us there is also a lie (or at best wrong because the data around these viruses sucks).
What congress and myself should be interested in is getting the likes of Lord, President, Savior, Dr. Anthony Fauci to recognize just how disproportionate our response has been, or at least asking why the response from within society, not science, had to be so different this time around.
Now, for the likes of Dr. Fauci and Co. maybe the case I am making is that we must mask up all the time, must shut our lives down for six to nine months a year. But, that response has never, ever, had real momentum during even epidemic levels of influenza outbreak here or in the rest of the world.
Why? Why are the responses here any different? Are we to believe that an epidemic year of the flu is not as important? Do those deaths not matter? Do those with life-altering hospitalizations from influenza and pneumonia caused by influenza not matter? Are they not worth protecting?
If we have to believe science, as the left has been telling us for over a year now, shouldn’t we believe the science that tells us we live with a virus that infects more people, in a shorter amount of time, and that we shouldn’t be afraid to live life in this case either?
One of the two responses is out of whack. I’m not willing to let Lord, President, Savior, Dr. Anthony Fauci tell us how our society should react anymore, nor should you.